There’s one first-ballot guaranteed entry on this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: Rickey Henderson.
Let’s take a look at a few others.
First, steroids aside, and lifelong Cardinal blood aside, Big Mac is NOT a Hall of Famer. McGwire couldn’t even get 2,000 hits.
A crime he’s not already in, and who may finally make it this year? Bert Blyleven.
The good, but not that good, no Veterans’ Division ballot: Dale Murphy. Think of him as a younger Ron Santo, with Atlanta fans less rabid than Cubbies.
Tim Raines? Sounds intriguing, but like the Hawk (Andre Dawson), I just can’t quite pull my finger on Rock.
Nice indeed, but not enough? Tommy John. For pitchers, I have two starter criteria, per Baseball-Reference.com: ERA+ and WHIP. In my book, your ERA+ must be 110 or higher and your WHIP 1.25 or lower to be even considered for the Hall. Both stats are free from live-ball/dead-ball or roids/pre-roids considerations.
John, NOT a power pitcher, misses on the WHIP. (Blyleven comfortably meets both standards. As does Luis Tiant on the veterans’ ballot.)
Jack Morris? Per the standards I list above, he misses on BOTH benchmarks. Basically, if not for his 1991 World Series effort, we wouldn’t even be talking about him.
Lee Smith? Just on the high side on WHIP. Since closers – especially today’s closers – are overrated, he can at least wait a while.
Alan Trammell? Nope. For batters, an OPS+ of 115 is a minimum starting point in my book. 120 or better to get a real look.
My predictions? Henderson and Blyleven. Not sure at all of the vets’ ballot.
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